Between late August and early September, the industry projected a rise in hog prices that finally didn’t happen due to an increase in supply. During the National holidays in October, consumption went up, provoking a temporary rebound in prices. Quickly after the holidays, consumption weakened further and pushed hog prices down again.
By mid-October, the market had likely reached the lowest price levels of the year. As of mid-November, the national average prices were 24.14 RMB/kg (2.94 EUR) for piglets, 12.50 RMB/kg (1.52 EUR) for live hogs, and 23.02 RMB/kg for retail pork [1]. Following the typical pattern of heavy hog slaughter during the autumn and winter seasons, prices are expected to maintain this downward inertia for some time.
China’s early-warning mechanism alert is activated when the hog price index remains in the “excessive decline” zone for three consecutive weeks. The alert is now a reality, and the Chinese government is carrying out strategic pork purchases to stabilise domestic prices. Oversupply continues to exert downward pressure on the market, and authorities have advised producers to reduce the number of breeding sows.
Although no significant rebound is expected in the short or medium term, the market may be approaching the bottom of the current price cycle.
This complex scenario didn’t stop imports of European pork from growing +1% from January to September compared to 2024, according to China customs. Now tariffs have stopped this trend, and numbers remain stable.
From Jan to Sep 2025, Pork imports were 788,000 tons, down 1.3% YoY. Spain, Brazil, Chile, Canada, and the Netherlands remained the major suppliers.
Canada benefited from the upgraded China–Canada Free Trade Agreement, which reduced tariffs on pork by-products from 12% to 9%, substantially improving its cost competitiveness. Canada just confirmed they will open a pork promotional office in China, strengthening its position in the market [2]. U.S. pork continued to face retaliatory tariffs, which reached as high as 57% for most products before being lowered to 47% [3], significantly limiting its presence in the Chinese market. Nevertheless, relations made progress as the U.S paused for one year the additional fees that were being imposed on Chinese-built vessels, and so China responded the same way with U.S. ships.
China also added a new pork-importing partner during this period. On October 15, 2025, the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture and China’s General Administration of Customs signed an agreement granting Kazakhstan its first time access to the Chinese pork market. The approved export range includes frozen and chilled pork, offal, and heat-processed products. Fresh pork can reach China via land transportation within 72 hours, offering a considerable logistical advantage.
Europe is finishing the year with developments that will likely impact its meat and trade relations with China. Spain, the top exporter from the region, signed an agreement for regionalisation in case of ASF outbreaks in the country [4].
[1] 11月第3周畜产品和饲料集贸市场价格情况
[2] Canadá abrirá una oficina de promoción cárnica en China – Noticias – 3tres3, la página del Cerdo
[3] https://www.usmef.org/news/pork-exports-remain-strong-in-august-beef-decline-continues-lamb-exports-trend-higher-1
[4] España firma con China un acuerdo de regionalización por la PPA – Noticias – 3tres3, la página del Cerdo
[5] https://www.pigprogress.net/health-nutrition/health/asf-spain-virus-emerges-in-2-dead-wild-boar/
