For the domestic market, predictions for 2025 are optimistic. According to USDA’s annual meat production and consumption report [1], Vietnam is forecast to increase its pork production by 3% over 2024, reaching 3.8 million tons. This is largely because African swine fever is starting to be brought under control for good [2].
Nevertheless, the September typhoon damaged farms and the planning that was being done for the TET (New Year’s holiday) festivities. Also, prolongation for many years now ASF has made the farmers reduce their sows. Main goal of the Government for the recovery of the industry is to reherd but in very secure and sustainable methods [3]. According to data from the Department of Animal Health, both factors diminished the pork supply by 35-40% in last quarter of 2024, specially in small scale farms.
As a consequence, more pressure in the sector during that time of the year. When new year arrived, farms made an effort to ensure a stable supply, but the effort is now bringing unanticipated consequences to the market.
The combination of TET, typhoon damages and consequences of African Swine Fever is a hard to deal situation for a sector that is still yet to fully industrialise. Result is a disrupted supply in this late winter period, and for so, a rise of hog prices. Although pork consumption is known to be in tops for new year’s festivities, household habits and economic stability is making Vietnamese eat pork during all year long, not only in special times.
According to the Vietnam Economic and Trade Office, there has been a rise in price, whether in the northern, central or southern regions [4]. The live hog price was at the end of February higher than in the last quarter of 2024. Low prices are found in the north, and high prices in the south as the area had to deal with harsher environmental problems, forcing to relocate pigs and resulting in a still more limited supply.
The government is prioritising repopulation, but these externalities have made imports of pork very relevant for the present time. Pork meat is one of the most imported meats, right after poultry and buffalo from India. Just in January, 12.6 thousand tons were imported at a value of 30.77 million EUR [5]. According to Vietnam’s Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the average price per ton was 2,3 EUR (about VDN 65,000/kg) 20% higher compared to 2024. Despite the relevant increase, imported pork meat is still lower than the price of domestic pig before slaughter, indicating the relevance and competitiveness of imported pork during this time in Vietnam.
Imports come from 13 different markets, with the leading position alternating between Brazil (40%) and Russia (45%). The third main partner is the EU, represented by Spain, Germany and the Netherlands. The remaining 5% includes other markets such as the United States and Canada. Russia has been one of the major players in recent years, especially in Vietnam. As of February, this year, it occupies the first position ahead of Brazil. Globally, pork exports from this market are expected to grow to 350,000 tons by 2025 [6]. The Russian government is focusing on the development of large pork companies and thus be able to generate an abundant supply and ready to export to Asian markets where demand is growing. According to the ranking shared by the National Union of Pig Farmers, 20 producers account for 80% of the volume of pigs slaughtered[7].
[1] https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details?pubid=110971
[2] https://nhachannuoi.vn/ban-tin-thi-truong-thit-trong-nuoc-va-the-gioi-thang-2-2025/
[3] https://vnexpress.net/cac-dai-gia-chan-nuoi-dong-loat-tang-gia-heo-hoi-4830385.html
[4] https://moit.gov.vn/en
[5] https://nhachannuoi.vn/ban-tin-thi-truong-thit-trong-nuoc-va-the-gioi-thang-2-2025/
[6] https://www.pig333.com/latest_swine_news/russias-pork-exports-may-increase-to-350-thousand-tons-in-2025_21052/
[7] https://nssrf.ru/
